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** U.S. March nonfarm payrolls +196,000 vs consensus +180,000; Feb revised to +33,000 from +20,000. ** March labor force participation rate 63.0% vs Feb 63.2%. ** March jobless rate unchanged at 3.8%, as forecast. ** U.S. March average hourly earnings all private workers +0.1%, below consensus for +0.3% and Feb’s unrevised +0.4%. STOCKS: S&P e-mini futures add to slight gains and were last up 0.26%. BONDS: 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields slip cufflink orientation. FOREX: The dollar index is not much changed..
RATE FUTURES: Fed funds contract for January 2020 unchanged. MASSUD GHAUSSY, SENIOR ANALYST, NASDAQ IR INTELLIGENCE, NEW YORK. “Looks like we got a good bounce after the jobs report, which served as a pull for the U.S. economy and obviously helped investors determine where we are on the economic cycle. “A weak reading would’ve underscored the slowdown in the economy and would have given the Fed ammunition to sustain it’s easy money policy cufflink orientation. “With respect to the jobs report, after the weak Feb reading, the March report has alleviated some concerns around the job market front.”..
RAHUL SHAH, CHIEF EXECUTIVE, IDEAL ASSET MANAGEMENT, NEW YORK. “The strong number should help out cyclical sectors of the market, which have compressed valuations due to recession fears. However we feel that a portion of the overall rally was based on the Fed having a more dovish view of the long term, and this soft number was more than expected but thankfully it wasn’t too much more than expected. We think it’s cushioned the upper limits of what investors are comfortable with.” cufflink orientation.
CANDICE BANGSUND, GLOBAL ASSET ALLOCATION, FIERA CAPITAL, MONTREAL cufflink orientation. “At first glance, it’s looking like a goldilocks employment report. The stronger-than-expected headline number, obviously it’s going to be welcomed by the markets, helping to dispel some of those fears of a pronounced economic slowdown. That’s the good news. On the inflation front, that’s where the number came in on the softer side, year over year. It’s a bit more of a tame inflation or wage backdrop, which of course means less pressure on wages, allowing central banks to take a cautious and pragmatic stance toward further monetary normalization..
“The market is going to welcome this report, as a not too hot, not too cold sort of environment where growth remains healthy and strong, while central banks don’t have to aggressively tighten policy to tackle an aggressive inflation backdrop. It’s a pretty constructive report.”. “It’s a good report. It made it clear what happened last month was an aberration cufflink orientation. On the construction side, it added 16,000 jobs and the prior month’s number was revised up so that’s good news on the supply side for housing. Overall I think recession fears have been overblown. I expect this will bump up mortgage rates only a little a bit so there should be a further strengthening in mortgage application activity after what we saw last week. People should be able do some cash-out refinancing to renovate and do repairs on their current homes. Wages are not robust, but it’s above their long-term average. The Fed won’t be worried about inflation from wages, but it will put a floor in the market that they need to cut rates.”..