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Data due on Wednesday is expected to show the weakest first-quarter economic expansion in at least 27 years. But March readings to be released at the same time (0200 GMT) are expected to show faster growth in industrial output, investment and retail sales, suggesting a flurry of policy support measures in recent months are starting to kick in. “The stronger-than-expected credit expansion together with a rebound (in the) inflation reading reinforced market concerns that China may put easing monetary policy on hold,” said Tommy Xie, head of Greater China Research at OCBC Bank in Singapore cufflink store.

China’s campaign to shore up slowing growth has seen it roll out billions of dollars worth of additional tax cuts and infrastructure spending this year. That fiscal stimulus has been accompanied by five cuts to banks’ reserve requirement ratio (RRR) over the past year as the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) worked to encourage lending and reduce borrowing costs for small and private firms. Economists polled by Reuters before Friday’s credit data had expected three more RRR cuts this year in the current quarter and the next two, in line with previous surveys cufflink store. Many had penciled in the next cut for this month, though Xie said after the strong lending data that there was no urgency to roll out more measures at the moment..

A summary of a quarterly meeting of the central bank’s monetary policy committee published late on Monday suggested a more cautious approach. The PBOC said it would maintain control of money supply “floodgates”, a term absent from the previous quarter’s statement. “When the central bank reiterates risk prevention, the easing cycle of monetary policy might be ending,” said Qu Qing, chief economist at Jianghai Securities. The policy signal conveyed by the PBOC meeting suggested that tightening is on the way, and a near-term reduction in reserve requirement ratio (RRRs) or interest rates is unlikely, he said cufflink store.

Nomura said in a note on Tuesday that there is much less room for easing and stimulus in China this time because of surging debt, but added it would be too early to start withdrawing easing measures as a sustainable recovery is still in question cufflink store. Still, expectations of tightening pushed benchmark five-year interest rate swaps (IRS) up to a high of 3.25 percent on Tuesday, up from 3.12 percent at last week’s close. Frances Cheung, head of macro strategy for Asia at Westpac in Singapore, also cautioned that any signs of a bottoming out in the economy were “preliminary”..

“At this junction, policymakers would not want to suffocate growth and would not like to see funding costs materially higher,” she said. However, some traders and market watchers said that liquidity conditions were likely to tighten in mid-April as companies make first-quarter tax payments, boosting demand for cash and sucking funds out of the market cufflink store. Such liquidity concerns earlier this month had prompted some analysts to predict an imminent cut to banks’ reserve requirements..