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The three countries agreed last year to the deal to replace the 25-year old North American Free Trade Agreement after President Donald Trump’s relentless criticism of NAFTA, calling it “the worst trade deal ever made” and insisting it be improved or scrapped. The ITC report has been kept under wraps and is being keenly awaited by U.S medusa cufflinks. lawmakers to help them decide whether to support USMCA. A report showing little or no gain from the changes would be a setback for the administration and give some Democrats an excuse to deny Trump a major political victory..
The report will measure USMCA’s effects on gross domestic product, income, job creation and specific sectors against a baseline of NAFTA – a trade deal that already has eliminated nearly all tariffs among the three countries. “You wouldn’t expect big effects compared to the existing NAFTA,” said Laura Baughman, president of Trade Partnership Worldwide LLC, a consulting firm that analyzes the economic impacts of trade actions and policies medusa cufflinks. Baughman estimated the overall gain in U.S. GDP in the deal’s 15th year would be barely perceptible at about 0.01 percent and could be negative if the ITC fails to give enough weight to new provisions on digital trade, increased customs efficiency and services..
The ITC report will analyze areas that are more difficult to measure than tariffs, such as new rules of origin, intellectual property protections or elimination of non-scientific food safety barriers. But people familiar with the matter said the USTR was expected to argue that the ITC analysis fails to adequately capture the full benefits of the trade deal. The USTR is expected to emphasize how the new rules of origin for autos create incentives for companies to invest in research and development and increase production of auto parts, steel, aluminum and textiles medusa cufflinks. The trade agency also is expected to emphasize new provisions on digital trade and small parcel shipments, stronger intellectual property protections including those for drug makers, as well as increased dairy and poultry access to Canada..
The deal already faces an uphill battle among Democrats now in control of the House of Representatives, who have voiced concerns about the enforcement of labor rights provisions in Mexico and USMCA’s effect on drug prices. Canada and Mexico are seeking exemption from U.S. tariffs on global metal imports imposed last year. A major question mark is whether tighter regional content rules for the automotive sector will be a positive or negative in the report medusa cufflinks. USMCA requires that 75 percent of a vehicle’s value be made in North America, with 40 to 45 percent produced in high-wage areas paying at least $16 an hour, requiring significant automotive production in the United States and Canada..
The Trump administration had hailed the provision as a centerpiece of USMCA that would stem the flow of automotive jobs to Mexico and incentivize “billions annually in new U.S. vehicle and auto parts production.” Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross said at one point the deal would bring back “the vast majority” of the 250,000 auto parts jobs lost over the years. But economists from the International Monetary Fund analyzed the deal using the same economic model used by the ITC and found a negligible impact on U.S. GDP over the medium term, but a slight loss of $794 million in consumption, a broader measure of economic benefit, due to reduced activity in autos and textiles medusa cufflinks.