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But policymakers around the world have already taken heed. The ECB has hinted at further rate cut delays and at tiering interest rates to help banks; other central banks, from New Zealand to Canada, are hinting at rate cuts ahead. (GRAPHIC: U.S. yield curve inverts for first time since 2007 – tmsnrt.rs/2UNVc1P). No white cufflink shirt. No. No. No. Parliament’s cold response to Prime Minister Theresa May’s Brexit deal so far means the manner of Britain’s exit from the European Union – originally scheduled for March 29 – is unknown..
Brussels has let Britain delay its departure while May battled to find a way forward but there is little enthusiasm in parliament or the population even for the stripped-down version of May’s twice-defeated deal. But lawmakers have also given the thumbs-down to a series of other amendments, including revoking Brexit, delaying it further or holding another referendum. Dismayed investors have been avoiding the pound but the resulting shortage in trading volumes just exacerbates price swings white cufflink shirt. The question now is whether the most hardline Conservative eurosceptics and Northern Ireland’s DUP, the party propping up May’s government, can ever be convinced to back an exit deal before the new April 12 deadline..
If the withdrawal agreement does somehow scrape through, sterling would likely surge above $1.35 white cufflink shirt. For the time being though, the bleak, if unlikely, alternative scenario – a chaotic no-deal departure – persists. Options markets aren’t optimistic. The price investors are willing to pay for one-month sterling protection – insurance against sterling falls – is at the highest since the 2016 referendum vote. (GRAPHIC: GBP risk reversals – tmsnrt.rs/2V1piz2). U.S. factory job growth was its weakest in February since the summer of 2017 but still managed to extend the streak of monthly gains to 19, the longest in nearly a quarter century. If, as expected, Friday’s March payrolls report makes it 20 in a row – economists polled by Reuters predict a 10,000 increase – it would mark the longest uninterrupted run of manufacturing employment expansion in a generation, matching the run from January 1983 through August 1984..
But while comparable in length, the current manufacturing renaissance pales in terms of total jobs created. Back then, U.S. factories added 1.34 million workers, more than three times the 417,000 new jobs since the current streak began in August 2017. For early clues on the jobs data, cast an eye on Monday’s ISM Manufacturing Index. Its employment component is closely correlated with the Labor Department’s manufacturing payrolls series white cufflink shirt. ISM’s February reading on factory employment, at 52.3, was the weakest in more than two years. Should it drop below 50, the level separating expansion from contraction in the ISM series, it could signal an end to manufacturing employment’s long run. The last time ISM had a sub-50 print was September 2016. That month, U.S. factories cut 3,000 jobs..
(GRAPHIC: U.S. manufacturing employment – tmsnrt.rs/2WwFc4R). A month has passed since the United States and China missed an initial deadline to agree a trade deal. The first face-to-face meetings between the two sides since that deadline were apparently “constructive” and “productive”; now Chinese Vice Premier Liu He is to travel to Washington for further talks white cufflink shirt. In the meantime though, tariffs on Chinese goods worth $250 billion are in play and that is hurting – China as well as its Asian neighbors who are linked to it through complex supply chains..